The Medicare Advantage Reset

Why 2026 Redefines the Market

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A Market Under Real Pressure

The Medicare Advantage landscape is not just changing.

It’s tightening.

In 2026:

• 10% of Medicare Advantage enrollees were forcibly disenrolled — a tenfold increase from the prior decade’s average
      Source: JAMA / Healthcare Dive
• 2.6 million beneficiaries entered the year in terminated plans
• UnitedHealthcare exited 225 counties
• Total Medicare Advantage plan offerings dropped 9% year-over-year
      Sources: KFF · Chartis

This is not normal market movement.

It’s contraction — happening at scale

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Not a One-Year Correction

Despite the pullback, the Medicare Advantage market is still growing.

According to Chartis:

• The market is projected to grow 12%  between 2025 and 2030

But growth is changing.

It will be:

• Slower than the previous decade
• Concentrated among fewer carriers    
• Driven by those who can manage rising medical costs

At the same time:

• Plan availability is shrinking
• Benefits are evolving
• Decision-making is becoming more complex

And most importantly:

Beneficiaries now need more help than ever.

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The Shift in the Ground Game

This environment is fundamentally reshaping how distribution works.

We are moving from:

• Abundance of plans
• Simpler comparisons
• Passive renewals

To:

• Fewer, more complex options
• Higher-stakes decisions
• Active re-shopping behavior

This is not just a policy shift.

It’s a behavior shift.

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A Decade-Defining Opportunity

For agents with the right support, this is one of the strongest environments the Medicare market has seen inyears.

Why?

Because:

• Millions of seniors have been displaced from their plans
• Carrier exits are creating white space across multiple markets
• Remaining options require deeper explanation and personalization

This is no longer a transaction-driven market.

It’s an advisory-driven market.

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For Agents

This is not a headwind.

It’s a lead-generation engine.

The agents who will win in this environment are those who can:

• Clearly explain what changed
• Simplify complex plan comparisons    
• Provide confidence in uncertain situations
• Move quickly with the right tools    

Because when beneficiaries are confused, they don’t wait.

They choose the agent who makes things clear.

And in 2026:

Clarity is a competitive advantage.

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For Agencies

Carrier exits are forcing a strategic decision.

In markets where major players have pulled back, agencies can either:

• Scramble to fill gaps with limited access
• Or operate with a partner that already has the relationships in place

Agencies that win will be those that can:

• Offer multiple carrier options, even in contracted markets
• Support agents with real-time operational visibility
• Adapt quickly as plan availability shifts

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Where Carepoint Fits

Carepoint is built for moments like this.

With:

• 38+ carrier partnerships
• A footprint across 42+ states    

We provide agencies with the flexibility to operate — even when the market tightens.

Because when carriers exit, option smatter.

And when options shrink:

Infrastructure becomes the differentiator.

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The Bottom Line

This is not a temporary disruption.

It’s a structural shift in:

• How plans are offered
• How beneficiaries choose
• How agencies grow

The market is not slowing down.

It is becoming more selective.

And in that environment:

The advantage goes to those who are built to operate in complexity.